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With the Caucasus becoming an increasingly volatile region and Russia distracted by the quagmire in Ukraine, many in Georgia have discussed the possibility of Tbilisi seizing this opportunity to use the Georgian military to reassert control over the breakaway states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But what would be the likely outcome of such a move? Would it be a repeat of the catastrophic defeat of the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, or would a more modern Georgian army be able to dislodge the separatists and Russian garrisons? And if a war were to break out, who would come to each side's aid?
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(Warmap of theorhetical Georgian redeployments. With Georgia (white), Turkey (bottom-red), Armenia (yellow), Azerbaijan (bottom green), Russia (top-red) and the two Georgian Breakaway States of Abkhazia (top-green) and South Ossetia (orange))
Originally Streamed on July 20th, 2024