Myanmar’s post-coup war has hardened into a brutal stalemate: the junta holds the central cities through terror and conscription, while a fractured resistance controls much of the periphery but faces donor fatigue and ammunition strain. Operation 1027 and a scam-and-narcotics war economy have reshaped incentives. China is now leaning on all sides to protect its border and Indian Ocean access. Is Myanmar heading for fragmentation, or a new, workable unity in 2026?