Who Controls Eastern Congo?

The Red Line
May 28
6 min read

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The last few years have seen a dramatic shift in the balance of power in the eastern

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), with Rwandan-backed militias advancing in North Kivu, Ugandan forces launching cross-border operations, and Western powers quietly increasing their presence in the region. What was once considered a forgotten conflict is now emerging as a new front in the global competition for influence, driven not just by security concerns, but by the region’s immense mineral wealth, critical for everything from electric vehicles to modern electronics.This week, we sit down with our expert panel to unpack who actually controls eastern Congo, why this strip of land has become so strategically valuable to outside powers, and how the local conflict is fast becoming a global contest between rival blocs.

LISTEN TO THE PROGRAM HERE

EPISODE SUMMARY:

PART I: A History of Hard Times - (03:30)

with Hugh Kinsella Cunningham

- Photojournalist previously based in the DRC.

- Multiple Grantee of the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting.

- Conflict reporter specialising in Central Africa.

Escalation into a Modern Battlefield: The current conflict in eastern DRC has evolved significantly beyond guerrilla warfare. Since early 2023, engagements have involved advanced military hardware including drones, man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS), and precision-guided munitions, shifting the conflict into a theatre resembling conventional state-on-state warfare. Rwandan-backed M23 units have demonstrated superior training, discipline, and technology, far surpassing the capabilities of the FARDC and its allied militias.
Rwanda’s Strategic Depth and Hybrid Tactics: Rwanda’s involvement has transcended proxy warfare. M23 advances—backed by Rwandan regulars—have led to the seizure of critical infrastructure, including Goma and the mineral-rich Rubaya coltan mines. Kigali appears to be enacting a soft annexation strategy: installing administrative officials, conducting targeted killings, and engaging in disinformation campaigns. This operational model bears resemblance to Russia’s tactics in Crimea, combining deniable forces with overt territorial control.
Collapse of Peacekeeping Effectiveness: Despite MONUSCO being the largest UN peacekeeping mission globally, it has proven largely ineffective in halting M23’s advance. The retreat of Uruguayan and Pakistani UN units following casualties and a precision strike illustrates both a tactical withdrawal and a broader failure of mandate execution. The SADC intervention force, though more robust, suffered casualties and was eventually encircled and disarmed, raising serious questions about the viability of multinational peace enforcement in high-intensity conflicts.
Congo’s Militarised Fragmentation and Logistical Breakdown: The FARDC's operational reach remains severely hampered by geography and underdevelopment. With only 2–3% of its roads paved and a colonial-era rail system designed for mineral extraction—not troop movement—the central government struggles to project power across its territory. In response, Kinshasa has armed local militias (Mai-Mai) lacking discipline or cohesion, resulting in widespread human rights abuses and a further erosion of state legitimacy in contested zones.
Kigali’s Endgame and Regional Security DeteriorationWhile Rwanda and Uganda cite the presence of hostile militias (notably the FDLR) to justify cross-border interventions, the occupation of eastern DRC increasingly resembles a strategic resource grab and power projection exercise. With Goma and key corridors now under effective Rwandan control, the likelihood of a negotiated withdrawal is minimal. Kigali’s calculated use of asymmetric warfare, advanced C4ISR capabilities, and narrative control has shifted the regional balance of power—raising the spectre of prolonged occupation, destabilisation, and a potential wider conflagration involving other regional actors.

PART II: Power Politics - (40:38)

with Alex Vines

- Dir. of the Africa program at Chatham House

- Chaired the UN panel of experts on Cote d'Ivoire and was a member of the UN panel of experts on Liberia.

- Member of the Commonwealth Observer Group

Weak State Control and Foreign Influence in Eastern DRC: Eastern Congo remains deeply influenced by the strategic agendas of neighbouring Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi, with Kinshasa exercising limited governance due to intentional infrastructural underdevelopment and geographic remoteness. This regional vacuum has enabled cross-border armed interventions, with local dynamics increasingly shaped by external actors pursuing both security and economic interests.
M23 as Rwanda’s Proxy Force: M23 has re-emerged as a formidable military force, exhibiting operational discipline and logistical sophistication beyond typical non-state actors—attributable to extensive Rwandan military support. UN reports confirm the presence of at least 4,000 Rwandan troops embedded with M23, providing training, equipment, and tactical leadership, effectively making the group a foreign policy tool of Kigali.
DRC’s Military Failures and Strategic Exposure: Despite possessing one of the largest standing armies in Sub-Saharan Africa, the FARDC suffers from poor morale, inadequate training, and failed reliance on foreign mercenaries. These weaknesses have enabled M23 to capture critical urban centres like Goma and mount offensives towards Kisangani, with little effective resistance, highlighting systemic dysfunction in the Congolese defence architecture.
Regional Players and the Risk of Escalation: Burundi’s initial support for Kinshasa has faltered after suffering losses against M23, while Uganda maintains a parallel agenda focused on the ADF insurgency in Ituri. Kigali’s operations risk dragging the region into broader interstate conflict, as accusations of planned Rwandan expansion into Burundi and direct clashes between Ugandan and Congolese troops indicate an increasingly volatile and fragmented security landscape.
International Dilemma and Strategic Calculations: Rwanda’s professionalism in foreign peacekeeping missions, including in Mozambique and CAR, complicates Western willingness to impose punitive measures, given Kigali’s utility in stabilising other conflict zones. However, further M23 advances, particularly the capture of Kisangani, a strategic logistical hub, could trigger international backlash, potentially forcing intervention or a reassessment of regional alignments amid concerns of regime change in Kinshasa and the emergence of a new pan-regional conflict.

PART III: The New Normal - (1:02:58)

with Michael Rubin

- Dir. of Policy Analysis for the American Enterprise Institute

- Fmr Pentagon Official

- Analyst with the Foreign Military Studies Office

Governance Failures Undermining DRC’s Defence Posture: Despite its numerical advantage and higher defence budget, the Congolese state continues to haemorrhage territory due to entrenched corruption, poor military cohesion, and the politicisation of elite units like the Republican Guard. Systemic mismanagement—exemplified by failed mercenary engagements and the misuse of procurement budgets—has left front-line units under-equipped, enabling smaller Rwandan-backed M23 forces to rout larger FARDC formations.
M23’s Civil Affairs and Strategic Legitimacy in the East: On-the-ground governance by M23 has outperformed Kinshasa’s efforts in key eastern regions, with locals citing better treatment, taxation practices, and agricultural output under M23 control. This comparative legitimacy—alongside economic and familial integration with neighbouring Rwanda and Uganda—has led to a growing perception in eastern DRC that Kigali’s system may be more efficient, further undermining Kinshasa’s authority.
Regional Power Dynamics and Internal Fragility: Burundi and Uganda are deeply implicated in the conflict, though both face internal dilemmas. Burundi’s president is fearful of his own military and uses foreign deployments to manage domestic risks, while Uganda’s Museveni faces a military split over M23 support, complicating succession plans for his son. Both states’ vulnerabilities could trigger wider instability or shifts in alliances if mismanaged.
Rwanda’s Peacekeeping Leverage and Geopolitical Shielding: Rwanda’s dual-track model—UN peacekeeping and bilateral deployments—has made it indispensable in African security operations, shielding it from international reprisal for its role in DRC. Kigali’s decisive role in Mozambique and the Central African Republic underscores its reputation as a capable security provider, giving Western powers a dilemma: condemn Rwanda’s destabilisation of eastern Congo, or risk losing a rare, effective counterinsurgency partner in Africa.
Buffer Zones, Federalism, and the Strategic Future of Kivu: Talks of buffer zones mirror historical precedents but risk entrenching foreign control over Congolese territory, particularly if linked to lucrative mineral assets. An alternative being floated is a decentralised or federalised governance model akin to Iraqi Kurdistan, enabling eastern provinces to retain local tax revenues and enhance legitimacy. However, unless international actors impose clear red lines—such as the defence of Kisangani—the risk of a Third Congo War remains acute, with regime change in Kinshasa no longer a distant scenario.