The Armed Forces of Central Asia - Chapter IV: Uzbekistan (Report)

The Red Line
5 hours ago
3 min read

Download the full report here >> https://oxussociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/The-Armed-Forces-of-Central-Asia-Chapter-IV-Uzbekistan-1-1.pdf

The following is a single chapter of a wider report examining the armed forces of Central Asia, with each chapter examining one of the five Central Asian republics created in collaboration with The Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, Forecast International, Military Periscope and many others. For access to the full interactive maps or the accompanying miniseries, links and information please visit the projects page here >> The Armed Forces of Central Asia

Report Summary:

Uzbekistan’s defence posture is presented as a geography-driven problem set, with borders, terrain and chokepoints assessed as complicating operations rather than providing defensive depth. This forces Tashkent to sustain a military able to operate across western deserts, southern plains, and the tight mountain passes and valleys of the east. The sharpest pressure point is the Fergana Valley, where borders do not follow natural features and instead drive recurring disputes and political uncertainty; despite its small size, the valley holds roughly 30 per cent of the population and key farmland and trade routes. Doctrine and command arrangements are traced to Karimov-era consolidation and subsequent adaptation to unrest. Authority is heavily centralised under the president, who appoints senior defence and security leaders and retains unilateral powers to impose a state of emergency or declare war, advised by an unusually expansive National Security Council. In this context, defence planning is assessed as having to counter both external threats and domestic volatility. Capability development is described as selective modernisation within a large Soviet-era inventory, supported by an outsized internal-security ecosystem. The conventional Ground Forces and Air and Air Defence Forces field roughly 48,000 personnel, while paramilitary services add around 25,500 armed personnel. The Uzbek Air and Air Defence Forces face increasing constraints from ageing fixed-wing fleets, maintenance and staffing shortfalls, and gaps in radar and modern air-defence coverage, encouraging greater reliance on drones. Logistics is assessed as a critical vulnerability: limited transport and repair capacity, shallow domestic production, and reliance on Russian supply chains constrain sustained operations and may force the requisition of civilian rail stock. Defence spending is opaque but assessed at roughly 2–3 per cent of GDP, while inflation and sustainment costs erode real purchasing power. Procurement patterns track foreign policy: Russia remains the principal supplier, but constraints push diversification for drones, MRAPs and SAM systems. The chapter concludes that Uzbekistan can preserve internal stability and defeat limited incursions, but closing logistics and air-defence gaps will require sustained funding, broader partnerships and favourable economic conditions. Operationally, Uzbekistan is assessed as well-suited for regime security, counterterrorism, and defeating limited border incursions, given the scale of its internal-security architecture and its ability to concentrate force rapidly under a centralised command model. The binding constraints are sustainment and air defence. The report repeatedly flags structural logistics gaps (transport, repair/refuel, ammunition self-sufficiency, and reliance on vulnerable road/rail corridors) as the key factor that would depress operational tempo in any prolonged or high-consumption campaign. In the air domain, fleet obsolescence and personnel deficits combine with radar/SAM shortfalls to create a growing vulnerability set, even as investment shifts toward drones as a cost-effective mitigation. These trends, alongside inflation-eroded purchasing power and constrained procurement options, make capability improvements plausible at the margin, but difficult to scale without sustained economic growth and supplier diversification. Overall though Uzbekistan, is one of the most capable militaries within Central Asia, but purely due to economics and reprioritisations, the nation is likely to fall further and further behind Kazakhstan in the coming years.

Military Units Map and Tracker: Uzbekistan

The Oxus Society has compiled the most comprehensive collection of military maps currently available on Central Asia, identifying over 5,800 military and security sites across all five republics. These maps provide an unparalleled resource for understanding the region’s defence landscape, from bases and airfields to border posts and specialised facilities. Explore the full collection for yourself below: