Comparing Drone Doctrines Across Theatres - (Live Panel)

The Red Line
39 minutes ago
4 min read

Listen to this episode on: Youtube

As drone warfare rapidly reshapes battlefields from Ukraine to Africa, understanding how doctrines diverge across theatres has never been more critical. To explore this shift, we assembled a panel of experts on modern warfare to examine the evolving role of drones in contemporary conflict. From fibre-optic FPVs in Donetsk to Turkish TB2s over Tripoli, we explore how these technologies are transforming strategy, logistics, and power projection. What lessons are being drawn from Ukraine? How are African states adopting or adapting these tactics? And what does this all mean for the next phase of global warfare?

ON THE PANEL:

- Samuel Bendett (CNA)

- Tom Mutch (Conflict Journalist)

- Candace Rondeaux (Future Frontlines)

PANEL SUMMARY:

Proliferation and Accessibility of UAVs: Since 2022, UAVs have become central to modern warfare, with over 90 countries and numerous non-state actors now operating them. The Ukraine conflict has demonstrated that access to drone warfare is no longer exclusive to wealthy militaries, commercial components have drastically reduced the entry threshold for both conventional and irregular forces.
Ukraine as a Global Battlefield Template: The Ukraine theatre has become a model for drone innovation, particularly in the adaptation of commercial drones for combat and ISR roles. The intensity and scale of drone use, often involving dozens of UAVs airborne simultaneously, have driven doctrinal shifts in mobility, concealment, and force aggregation on the battlefield.
Origins of Drone Use in Ukraine: Early Ukrainian drone use was grassroots, with civilians adapting hobbyist drones for reconnaissance and target designation. As ammunition shortages emerged, especially post-2023, Ukraine scaled up drone production using imported components, notably commercial FPVs and agricultural UAVs like the VPI "Baba Yaga" systems.
Tactical Shifts and Doctrine Evolution: Both Ukraine and Russia are continuously updating ground force doctrines to account for the persistent aerial surveillance and strike capability provided by UAVs. The saturation of ISR drones has made traditional manoeuvres and force concentrations increasingly risky, prompting new dispersion and concealment tactics.
African Theatres as Testing GroundsAfrica has seen significant experimentation with UAVs, particularly since the Libyan conflict of 2011. The deployment of Turkish Bayraktar TB2s in Libya marked a turning point, reversing Wagner-supported offensives and demonstrating how strategic drones can decisively alter battlefield dynamics.
Russian Adaptations in Africa: Russian-aligned forces, including Wagner units, have begun to integrate drone tactics learned in Libya and Ukraine into operations across Mali, Sudan, and the Central African Republic. The introduction of Chinese-manufactured Shahed copies such as the Sunflower-200 indicates a shift towards cheaper, locally viable options.
Cost Asymmetry and Air Defence Strain: The disparity in cost between low-end drones and high-end air defence systems has altered procurement and force posture. $500 drones forcing the deployment of $1M+ SAMs creates a severe economic imbalance, compelling militaries to rethink allocation of air defence resources and develop layered solutions.
Pilot Skill and System Efficacy: Combat effectiveness of UAVs is still heavily dependent on pilot training. The most effective FPV strikes in Ukraine are executed by highly trained operators, prompting both sides to prioritise targeting enemy drone pilots, underscoring the continued human element within increasingly automated warfare.
Innovation Arms Race: The "Reverse Manhattan Project": Ukraine and Russia are engaged in what has been dubbed a “Reverse Manhattan Project”: an industrial-scale race to produce millions of cheap, lethal drones. Ukraine is reportedly aiming to manufacture up to four million UAVs in 2024 alone, leveraging commercial supply chains and volunteer assembly networks.
EW vs Fibre Optic Drones: A key technological battle has emerged between electronic warfare (EW) countermeasures and fibre optic-controlled drones. Russian forces pioneered the use of fibre tethered UAVs to bypass EW jamming, resulting in frontline areas now laced with glistening cables, posing a new challenge for kinetic drone defence.
Tactical Cat-and-Mouse and Combat Engineering: Innovations include netting over supply routes, drones repurposed as roadside mines, and increased underground infrastructure. Both sides use unmanned ground vehicles for resupply and have created logistics workarounds to avoid drone surveillance and strikes, reducing human exposure on contested terrain.
Strategic Autonomy and Regional Dependencies: Many African militaries remain reliant on foreign drone operators, typically from Russia or Turkey. While countries like Ethiopia and Nigeria are developing native drone industries, others, such as Mali and CAR, remain dependent, leading to deeper political and logistical reliance on external providers.
Debunking the "Drone Supremacy" Narrative: Despite drone proliferation, traditional systems like tanks and combat jets retain key roles. Well-protected MBTs operating in combined arms formations remain effective, and drones cannot yet replicate the payload, range, or survivability of manned aircraft, highlighting the necessity for combined-force doctrine.
Autonomy, AI, and Swarm Technology: Autonomous swarming drones represent the next major doctrinal threshold. These systems, currently in development by Ukraine, Russia, and others, would feature real-time inter-drone communication and adaptive targeting. Once fielded, they could redefine air dominance and battlefield lethality.
Organisational Innovation and Future Trends: Russia's decision to create a dedicated UAV branch across all services illustrates a broader institutionalisation of drone warfare. Looking ahead, major developments will likely include doctrinal integration, material innovation (e.g., improved composites for EW resistance), and gradual introduction of AI-driven targeting systems—even in developing states.